Significant Severe Weather Threat for Iowa on Monday: Tornado Outbreak Possible
A serious severe weather event is expected to unfold across Iowa on Monday, with a moderate risk for severe thunderstorms focused over central Iowa and extending into southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. An outbreak of severe storms appears likely, with the primary threats being large hail, damaging wind gusts, and the potential for strong to intense tornadoes, some of which could be long-tracked.
The atmospheric setup is highly concerning. A strong upper-level jet stream will sweep northeastward across the region, while a deepening surface low moves from the northern Plains toward the Great Lakes. In response, warm and humid air will surge northward across Iowa. With broken to scattered cloud cover allowing sunshine to heat the surface, the atmosphere will destabilize rapidly. This will create a volatile environment capable of supporting explosive thunderstorm development.
Storms may begin forming as early as midday across western Iowa and western Minnesota. These initial storms are likely to be supercells, capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes. As the afternoon progresses, storms farther south and east across Iowa are expected to remain more isolated — a setup particularly favorable for strong tornadoes. Supercells that develop within the open warm sector will tap into extreme levels of atmospheric instability and very strong wind shear, increasing the risk for long-lived, intense tornadoes.
By late evening, a powerful cold front will sweep through, likely organizing storms into a squall line. Even as the storms transition to a more linear mode, the threat for damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will persist into the overnight hours.
Iowa sits in the heart of this threat area, where conditions will be most supportive of significant severe weather. Surface heating will be strong enough to erode any lingering cap, allowing storms to form freely. Wind shear values are forecast to exceed 60 knots — a critical ingredient for organized, rotating supercells and tornado production. The combination of strong instability and intense wind shear makes this a particularly dangerous setup.
Residents across Iowa should take this situation seriously. It is important to have multiple reliable ways to receive weather warnings, including NOAA weather radio, weather apps with alert notifications enabled, and access to local news. Make sure your tornado safety plan is in place and that you know where your safest shelter is, ideally in a basement or a small, windowless room on the lowest floor of your home. Charge your devices in advance and remain alert throughout the day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when conditions will become most volatile.
Days like Monday are rare but extremely dangerous. Iowa is no stranger to severe weather, but the combination of factors coming together on Monday points toward an environment highly supportive of strong tornadoes, destructive hail, and widespread damaging winds. Continue to monitor trusted weather sources closely, stay prepared, and stay safe.
