Alert: Risk for Severe Weather Increasing
Severe weather is expected to become more likely this afternoon across portions of southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, northwest Missouri, and much of southern to northeast Iowa. A combination of very humid air, a cold front moving in from the west, and a nearby low-pressure system is creating the right conditions for thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind and possibly even a tornado. The Storm Prediction Center has stated there is an 80% chance that a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch will be issued soon.
Although cloud cover has reduced sunshine in some areas, it hasn’t stopped the atmosphere from becoming very unstable. There’s plenty of moisture in the air, and storm energy — what meteorologists refer to as “CAPE” — is high, measuring between 2000 and 3000 J/kg. That’s more than enough to support strong thunderstorms, especially along and ahead of the cold front. Storms are already developing in parts of central Iowa, and more are expected to form this afternoon and evening.
In areas like central and northeast Iowa, wind patterns in the atmosphere are more favorable for rotating thunderstorms, also known as supercells. These can produce both damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes. Farther south — across southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, southwest Iowa, and northwest Missouri — the wind shear is weaker, but a broken line of storms could still bring pockets of strong, damaging wind gusts as storms push east.
Forecast models suggest that the most likely peak tornado strength today could fall in the EF1 to low-end EF2 range, with wind speeds between 85 and 115 mph. Meanwhile, damaging straight-line wind gusts could reach 55 to 70 mph in the strongest storms.
If you’re in or near the affected area, now is the time to prepare. Make sure you have a way to receive weather warnings — whether that’s a weather app, a NOAA Weather Radio, or local broadcasts. Secure loose outdoor items and be ready to act quickly if a warning is issued. Conditions may change rapidly, and storms could intensify with little advance notice.
